In recent months, two very important issues concerning Assam and its people have received some media coverage in Assam. The first is India's grandiose $120,000,000,000 (one hundred & twenty billion US Dollar) plan of river-linking which involves, among other things, the diversion of Brahmaputra water near Jogighopa to be mixed with the Ganges. The second issue is the internationally reported Chinese plan to dam the Brahmaputra river just before it enters India's Arunachal Pradesh in order to generate 40,000 megawatts of hydroelectricity and irrigate the arid Gobi desert area with the impounded water. The uproar caused by both these issues has definite merit. The ramifications of both these endeavors, one national and the other international, with respect to the well-being of the Assamese people is indeed very serious and need full understanding regarding pros and cons. The intent of this article is to give an introduction to the issues to evoke wider interest and relevant discussion by the readers.
There is more than meets the eye to the controversy surrounding these issues. What it brings forth is a signal for a future crisis of mankind on the planet earth. It is the question of ownership of water resources. Water is the second most important ingredient for human survival, and like air, it has no national boundary. Almost half of the world's landmass is under international river basin systems. With the standard of living ever increasing in the world, the demand for water is increasing at a ferocious pace. Like oil, water resources will weigh heavily in international geopolitics in the future and, if not averted in time, may cause socio-political unrest in various parts of the world. As the demand increases, countries will assert rights to water resources more and more and conflicts will arise. To my knowledge, there are no set international laws that all countries have to abide by regarding the sharing of water resources. But there are literally scores of treaties dating back more than a hundred years regarding negotiated settlements with respect to the use of international water resources. A famous example is the Indus water treaty (September, 1960) between India and Pakistan that was settled after years of efforts facilitated by the then World Bank Chairman Eugene Black. Another example is the Ganges treaty (DATE) on sharing the water resources at Farraka, signed by Prime Minister Gowda of India and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh. There are similar examples in other parts of the world.
In both the river-linking project of India as well as China's plan to dam the Brahmaputra River, one can discern an aura of arrogance laced with selfish nationalistic chauvinism. China's plan to build the dam was unilateral, without consultation of the lower riparian countries-India and Bangladesh. Similarly, India's river-linking plan, which has caused concerns in Bangladesh, was formulated by India on its own. A joint venture by all riparian countries sharing the common river makes more sense than selfish nationalistic plans that can only cause discontent and suspicion due to perceived unfairness to the lower riparian countries.
There is no question that the Brahmaputra is the lifeblood of Assam. The entire Assamese society with its rich culture and heritage is inextricably linked to this river, which is so dearly called "Luit" by the Assamese people. One of the great rivers in the world, the Brahmaputra commences its more than 3000 km journey to the Bay of Bengal, some 96 km southeast of the holy Kailash mountain in western Tibet near the sacred Manash Sarobar Lake in an ice glacier called "Tamchuk Khambab". In its run to the Bay of Bengal, the river weaves through myriad religions and cultures and some of the most inhospitable areas on earth. The highest river on earth, it flows at an average elevation of about 4000 meters in Tibet where it is known as Yarlung Tsangpo. After a run of about 900 km east in south Tibet, and after passing Pei, the river is blocked by the highest peak east of the Himalayas-Mt. Namche Bawar (7782 m). The river suddenly turns to the north and northeast and cuts a course through a succession of narrow gorges and plunges with tremendous force to descend more than 3000 meters. It is at this vantage point where China wants to build a dam over the river and divert the water by closing the natural flow loop. The river then turns south and southwest and enters the Arunachal Pradesh, India. Here it changes its name to Dihang (Siang). Just beyond Pasighat and west of Sadiya, it meets Dibang and Luhit to become Brahmaputra. The river then traverses the entire Assam valley for about 800 km westward and then it turns south to Bangladesh where it assumes the name Jumna. It then joins the river Ganges, another mighty river of the world, at Goalundu to discharge the largest quantity of water into the Bay of Bengal.
China's proposal is to divert the Brahmaputra River near where it loops around near Namche Bawar and makes a quick fall of 3050 meters by building a dam to generate 40,000 megawatts of hydroelectricity to make use of this huge available water head. The dam will impound water to be pumped to the arid Gobi region of China to increase agricultural production and to make China a formidable grain exporting country. Chinese officials are reported to have stated that by impounding water it will help alleviate the flood problem in Assam. To the extent that the flow discharge in the Brahmaputra from the Tibetan catchment area is controlled during the high volume season, China's statement is true. However, there are wider ramifications to consider. There must be a definitive daily profile of water discharge from the dam to understand the effect of the dam. Will the discharge pattern choke off Assam during lean seasons or will it flood the region at other times because of willful extra discharge? These are questions that must be asked at governmental levels, and the answers must be factored into the formulation of India's policy; however, currently not enough is known about these questions.
There have been reports in the press that the release of the large body of water from China in the recent past has caused violent floods in the Arunachal Pradesh, causing untold miseries and devastation. With a reservoir high up on the Tibetan plateau, China will have the strategic high ground making the lower riparian Assam, India and Bangladesh totally vulnerable to any arbitrary and whimsical act on the part of the Chinese. As a result, India's national security is at stake. Reported use of nuclear detonation to create tunnels to use for water flow to the turbines has all the aspects of environmental hazards affecting the people of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in particular. Additionally, there is a host of other environmental issues that need to be addressed thoroughly. Global environmental groups will have to be watchful of what China is doing in this context. In a nutshell, China's proposal to build a dam across the Brahmaputra is a matter of potentially very serious consequences for Assam, India as well as Bangladesh, which is also highly dependent on the Brahmaputra water.
India's river-linking project causes the same concerns to Bangladesh as China's dam proposal since it is so dependent on the Brahmaputra water. It makes sense to have proper dialogue with Bangladesh with a view to equitable sharing of river water similar to the agreement on Farakka barrage water allocation. I do not think Assam should be too concerned since the water diversion will be at the downstream end of the valley. All it will mean is draining part of the discharge into the Ganges instead of the Bay of Bengal. What is unacceptable is lack of consultation with Assam on the part of the planners creating and exacerbating the suspicion of the Assamese people of exploitive treatment of resources of Assam. Assamese sentiments are intrinsically intermingled with the Brahmaputra water resource.
I have a proposal at this point to the Government of India executing the plan. Let us bring the people of Assam into confidence by initiating a discussion with leaders of Assam from all segments of the society in the form of a seminar in Guwahati. Let the Assam Government organize this seminar. Once the people of Assam are brought into confidence, let the people of Assam have a fair share in the employment scenario resulting from the huge projected expenditure on the project. All of the diversion work from Assam can be handled within Assam with appropriate funding with a suitable non-governmental organization set up brought under contractual agreement. Reports have it that the segment involving Assam will cost about $200,000,000. Assam can have a substantial employment boost in the foreseeable future with such work performed by Assamese Engineers. We, the NRA's, can have a very active and beneficial role in providing individual expertise and joint collaboration with specialized US firms. We, the Assamese people, can do it. More in the future. Thanks.
- by Dr. Umesh Tahbildar is a P.E.(New York, New Jersey) and the President of Devee Engineering, LLC. off West Windsor, NJ 08550-3524
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